Jets Need Win in Miami to Aid Playoff Hopes

Football Betting Lines

12/23/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Prior to the start of the 2006 NFL season, it was easy to look at a Christmas night matchup between the Jets and Dolphins in Miami and expect one team to be looking to advance its playoff position, while the other played the role of spoiler.

That is exactly the situation at hand in Monday night's game, though the projected roles are reversed.

Preseason playoff favorite Miami (6-8) will be spending the month of January watching postseason football on its collective couch. The supposedly not- ready-for-primetime Jets (8-6), meanwhile, can still see the playoffs dangling before them like so much Christmas mistletoe.

Eric Mangini's surprising team has put itself in the postseason running by going 6-3 over its past nine games, including a dominating 26-13 win in Minnesota in Week 15. The Jets have displayed a road warrior mentality throughout the season, going 5-2 away from the Meadowlands, and the franchise's current three-game road winning streak is its longest since it won five consecutive away from friendly confines in 2001.

New York closes its 2006 season with a home game against the woeful Oakland Raiders.

The Dolphins are attempting to ruin Christmas for the Jets, and are also trying to reach another peak in what has been up-and-down season for Nick Saban's club.

Miami started the year at 1-6, before placing itself back into postseason contention with a four-game winning streak. But the Dolphins subsequently squandered their new-found status by losing two of their last three, including a 21-0 blanking at the hands of the Buffalo Bills last week that effectively eliminated them from the playoff race.

The Fins, who close their 2006 campaign in Indianapolis next Sunday, will be playing at Dolphin Stadium for the first time since their 21-0 domination of the New England Patriots in Week 14, a game that snapped the Pats' seven-game regular season road winning streak.

SERIES HISTORY

The Jets hold a 42-38-1 lead in their all-time series with Miami, including a 20-17 home victory when the teams met in Week 6. New York has now won four of the last five in the series, with the Dolphins' only win over that stretch coming at home (24-20) last season. The Jets' most recent win in Miami occurred in 2004.

In addition to their regular season history, the Jets and Dolphins met in the 1982 AFC Championship, which went to Miami by a 14-0 score.

Saban is 1-2 against the Jets in his brief tenure with Miami, while New York's Mangini is 1-0 against both Saban and the Dolphins as a head coach.

JETS OFFENSE VS. DOLPHINS DEFENSE

Seeking to build on a career day in Minnesota will be Jets quarterback Chad Pennington (2958 passing yards, 15 TD, 16 INT), who completed 29-of-39 passes for a personal-best 339 yards with a touchdown, an interception, and a lost fumble against the Vikings. After losing a fumble on the second play from scrimmage, which Minnesota cashed in for a touchdown, Pennington led scoring marches on six of the team's next seven drives. The enigmatic quarterback has posted eight single-game passer ratings of better than 90.0 this season (including a 99.1 against the Dolphins on Oct. 15th), but has also been under 50.0 in three games. Pennington has had three regular targets this year - wideouts Laveranues Coles (87 receptions, 6 TD) and Jerricho Cotchery (71 receptions, 5 TD) along with tight end Chris Baker (28 receptions, 3 TD). Coles turned in a 12-catch, 144-yard, one-touchdown performance in Minnesota, and now needs four receptions, 200 receiving yards, and two touchdowns over his final two games to set personal single-season bests in all three major receiving categories. Cotchery and Baker combined for 10 catches totaling 89 yards against the Vikings. The young Jets line has surrendered 32 sacks through 14 games, including two last week.

Pennington would be wise to keep at least one eye on Dolphins defensive end Jason Taylor (53 tackles, 12.5 sacks, 2 INT) at all times Monday night. Taylor was named to his fifth career Pro Bowl on Tuesday, and remains among the foremost contenders for league Defensive Player of the Year honors. The veteran has at least a sack in nine of his last 11 games, has nine forced fumbles over that span, and also has two interception returns for touchdowns on the year. The secondary, which has totaled just five interceptions on the entire season, has shown less playmaking ability than the pass rush, but has contributed to the team rank of third in NFL pass defense (178.3 yards per game). Who will match up with Coles and Cotchery is up in the air at this stage, as cornerback Will Allen (52 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is listed as questionable with a groin problem. Andre' Goodman (39 tackles) and Travis Daniels (27 tackles, 1 INT) would likely start if Allen can't go, with Yeremiah Bell (60 tackles, 2 sacks) and Renaldo Hill (75 tackles, 2 INT) lending support from the safety positions.

One week after facing a Vikings front seven that is on pace to allow the fewest rushing yards in a 16-game NFL season, the Jets will be pleased to see the Dolphins' less suffocating front. Cedric Houston (330 rushing yards, 5 TD) did a bulk of the running against the Vikings, totaling 53 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Apart from his six-yard touchdown run and a 20-yard rush on a 3rd-and-22 play in the second half, Houston, who is listed as questionable with a calf injury for this week, averaged just 1.4 yards per rush. Rookie scatback Leon Washington (571 rushing yards, 3 TD, 19 receptions) was held to five yards on three carries in the win, but should see more work this week against a Miami team that he beat for 58 yards on 11 carries back in Week 6. Washington continues to lead the Jets, who are 18th in the league in rushing offense (109 yards per game), in ground yards.

The Dolphins rank eighth in the league against the run (100.4 yards per game), with the main reason for that statistic, middle linebacker Zach Thomas (142 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT), earning his seventh career Pro Bowl citation for his efforts earlier this week. Thomas had another huge game against the Bills last Sunday, tallying 18 tackles and a pair of forced fumbles in a losing effort, and entered Week 16 as the NFL leader in stops. Fellow LB Channing Crowder (93 tackles, 1 sack) has also been good this season, and Keith Traylor (31 tackles, 4 sacks) and Vonnie Holliday (63 tackles, 7 sacks) have provided the Dolphins' main presence at the point of attack.

DOLPHINS OFFENSE VS. JETS DEFENSE

The Dolphins' Joey Harrington (2194 passing yards, 12 TD, 15 INT) played the worst game a quarterback can play last week, posting a 0.0 passer rating before being pulled late in favor of backup Cleo Lemon. Amid difficult weather conditions in Buffalo, Harrington completed 5-of-17 passes for 20 yards with two interceptions, dropping his record as a starter this year to 5-5. Harrington was 27-of-43 for 266 yards with a touchdown and two picks against the Jets in Week 6. Wideouts Chris Chambers (55 receptions, 4 TD) and Wes Welker (63 receptions, 1 TD) will look to get involved this week, along with tight end Randy McMichael (53 receptions, 1 TD). Chambers did not have a catch last week, the first time that has happened since 2002. Welker and McMichael had four receptions each, while usual No. 2 receiver Marty Booker (51 receptions, 6 TD) played only sparingly due to an ankle injury. Booker is listed as doubtful for this week. McMichael had a season-high eight grabs against the Jets in Week 6. The Miami line has given up 36 sacks on the year, including one last Sunday.

Seeking to goad Harrington into another miserable outing will be a Jets defense that ranks 19th in the NFL against the pass (212.3 yards per game). The Jets intercepted Harrington twice in Week 6, with cornerback Andre Dyson (59 tackles, 4 INT) and linebacker Victor Hobson (88 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 INT) both notching picks, and also harassed Vikings QBs Brad Johnson and Tarvaris Jackson in last week's game. The Jets ran Johnson from the game after holding him to 96 yards on 10-of-17 passing, and denied Minnesota any shot at a comeback when cornerback David Barrett (31 tackles, 3 INT) intercepted Jackson late in the going. Linebackers Hobson and Eric Barton (93 tackles, 3 sacks) had two of the Jets' three sacks last week. The best player in the New York secondary this season has been strong safety Kerry Rhodes (91 tackles, 4 sacks, 4 INT), who was unjustifiably snubbed when the AFC Pro Bowl team was announced on Tuesday. The Jets have 30 sacks on the year, led by Bryan Thomas' (70 tackles) seven-and-a-half, but did not have one against Harrington in Week 6.

The Dolphins are just 25th in the league in rushing offense (99.9 yards per game), but could get a spark from the possible return of running back Ronnie Brown (783 rushing yards, 5 TD, 29 receptions) this week. Brown has missed three games since breaking his left hand against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, but his return is listed as questionable for Monday night. Sammy Morris (367 rushing yards, 1 TD, 17 receptions) earned three starts in Brown's place, averaging 80.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush but scoring just one touchdown. Brown rushed 22 times for 127 yards and a touchdown against the Jets in Week 6.

Whoever does the running for Miami should be able to make some gains on a Jets defense that ranks just 24th in NFL rushing defense (133.7 yards per game). New York was able to limit the effectiveness of Minnesota's Chester Taylor in Week 15, holding him to 38 yards on 11 carries, though the big early lead that the Jets built demanded a pass-first approach from the Vikings. Hobson led the linebacking corps with eight tackles in the victory, and interior lineman Dewayne Robertson (56 tackles, 2.5 sacks) was a difference-maker with six tackles. Inside linebackers Jonathan Vilma (100 tackles, 1 INT) and Barton are 1-2 on the team in stops as Week 16 begins.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Like most young teams, the Jets have had difficulty playing well when they are saddled with expectations. As an underdog, New York has generally played up to the level of its competition, but when they have had a golden opportunity to improve their postseason and/or division standing, Mangini's club has seized up more often than not (see losses to Browns, Bills). Look for that M.O. to hold up on Christmas night. Despite their disappointing season, the Dolphins have shown via decisive wins over the likes of the Bears and Patriots that they can beat anyone when especially motivated. In a primetime home game against a hated rival with the whole NFL world watching, expect the Fins to find that motivation.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Dolphins 17, Jets 14