Desperate Falcons, Fading Panthers Battle at Georgia Dome

Football Betting Lines

12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Falcons hope to take advantage of a Carolina Panthers team in disarray and record a much-needed victory when the two rivals square off this Sunday at the Georgia Dome.

This late-December matchup was thought to be the game that would decide the NFC South champion heading into this season, but things haven't quite gone to plan for either team. While New Orleans has run away with the division crown, the Falcons are battling for their playoff lives and the Panthers -- the consensus preseason favorite in the South -- have seen their postseason chances basically go up in smoke because of a current four-game losing streak.

Atlanta is currently tied with the New York Giants for the NFC's final Wild Card berth, but the Giants own the tiebreaker by virtue of a 27-14 win over the Falcons back in October. And with a tough game on the road against the resurgent Philadelphia Eagles looming next week, a win against the reeling Panthers is vital to Atlanta's playoff fortunes.

The Falcons weren't in this predicament at midseason, when the club got off to a 5-2 start and stood in the thick of the NFC South race. However, losses in five of its last seven games, including last Saturday's 38-28 setback to Dallas, have put Atlanta's once-promising season on the brink.

A performance out of Michael Vick like the four-touchdown effort the exciting but erratic quarterback produced through the air against the Cowboys would go a long way towards strengthening the Falcons' position. The athletic signal- caller wound up leaving that game in the final stages because of a groin strain, although Vick is expected to be back under center for this one.

Carolina finds itself in even more dire straits than Atlanta. The disappointing Panthers come in with four straight losses under their belts and suffered a humiliating 37-3 shellacking at home to Pittsburgh last week, the franchise's most lopsided defeat since a 41-0 debacle against the Falcons in 2002.

The two most recent losses came without the services of quarterback Jake Delhomme, who has a ligament tear in his right thumb and is unlikely to play again this week. That would still leave the offense in the shaky hands of Chris Weinke, who has guided the Panthers to victory just once in 17 career starts.

SERIES HISTORY

The Falcons lead the all-time series with Carolina, 15-8, including a 20-6 road victory when the teams met in Week 1. The Panthers swept last year's home-and-home, claiming a 24-6 decision in Charlotte in Week 13 and a 44-11 rout at the Georgia Dome in Week 17. Prior to 2005, Atlanta had won nine of their last 10 overall against the Panthers, including their own home-and-home sweep in 2004.

Carolina's John Fox enters Sunday's contest with a 3-6 career mark against Atlanta, while the Falcons' Jim Mora is 3-2 against both Fox and Carolina as a head coach.

PANTHERS OFFENSE VS. FALCONS DEFENSE

It's been a struggle for Weinke (593 passing yards, 1 TD, 4 INT) since the former Heisman Trophy winner was forced into action because of Delhomme's injury. The 34-year-old, who hadn't played regularly since his rookie campaign of 2001, did throw for a career-best 423 yards in Carolina's 27-13 loss to the Giants in Week 14, but also had three costly picks which contributed to his team's demise. Weinke then failed to move the offense last week against Pittsburgh, although he didn't get a whole lot of support from a mediocre and banged-up offensive line that's been a sore spot for the Panthers all year long. Carolina ranks just 27th in the league in scoring (16.4 ppg), partly because game-breaking wide receiver Steve Smith (76 receptions, 1,081 yards, 6 TD) has been the offense's lone legitimate big-play threat. Veteran Keyshawn Johnson (66 receptions, 770 yards, 4 TD) has also had a good season opposite Smith, and Drew Carter (28 receptions, 357 yards, 3 TD) has emerged as a reliable option as the third receiver. Carter sprained an ankle during the Pittsburgh game, however, and could be unavailable on Sunday.

Weinke's numbers could very well improve against an Atlanta defense that has surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league (236.2 ypg) and was powerless in its attempts to stop Dallas' Tony Romo, who rolled up 278 yards and completed 22 of 29 throws last week. The secondary does possess a Pro Bowl player in DeAngelo Hall (54 tackles, 4 INT, 10 PBU), although the cocky corner is coming off a rough outing against the Cowboys in which he was beaten for a pair of touchdowns by Terrell Owens. The beleaguered unit may get a boost by the hopeful return of cornerback Jason Webster (49 tackles, 2 INT), who has missed six straight games with a groin injury but is now back practicing. The Falcons have compiled a respectable 34 sacks on the season, and should be able to pressure the immobile Weinke, who has been sacked seven times in his two starts, provided brittle end John Abraham (17 tackles, 4 sacks) can be effective after tearing a ligament in his left thumb last week. The pass-rush specialist had a monster game in Atlanta's Week 1 win over the Panthers, producing six tackles, two sacks and a pair of forced fumbles.

A contributing factor to Carolina's offensive woes has been the season-long dormant status of a running game that played a key role in the club's run to last year's NFC title game. The Panthers rank 27th out of 32 NFL teams in rushing yards (97.9 ypg) despite having a pair of quality halfbacks in DeShaun Foster (716 rushing yards, 2 TD) and rookie DeAngelo Williams (412 yards, 1 TD). The problems can again be traced back to the play up front, where season- ending injuries to center Justin Hartwig, tackle Travelle Wharton and now guard Mike Wahle, who was placed on IR Wednesday because of a torn right labrum, have wreaked havoc on the unit. The makeshift line couldn't effectively block the Steelers last week, as Carolina mustered only 43 yards on the ground.

Atlanta has been solid in defending the run, as the Falcons are allowing just 102.2 rushing yards per game (10th overall) on the season. A deep linebacking corps led by five-time Pro Bowler Keith Brooking (120 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is the strength of the defense. Strongside starter Michael Boley (63 tackles, 2 sacks) has enjoyed a breakout second season and the oft-injured Edgerton Hartwell (21 tackles, 1 sack) has been a stabilizing presence in the middle when able to play. The offseason additions of beefy tackle Grady Jackson (31 tackles) and strong safety Lawyer Milloy (86 tackles, 1 sack) have also bolstered a run defense that was one of the league's worst a year ago.

FALCONS OFFENSE VS. PANTHERS DEFENSE

The Falcons emphasize the run more than any NFL club, and are headed for their third consecutive team rushing title. Atlanta averages an impressive 192.6 yards per game on the ground, a number that's aided by Vick's elusiveness out of the pocket. The dynamic playmaker needs just 10 yards to become the first quarterback in league history to rush for 1,000 in a season, but his effectiveness as a scrambler may be hindered by his injury. Veteran Warrick Dunn (1,053 yards, 4 TD) eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the third straight year in the Dallas game, although the diminutive back hasn't had more than 87 yards in any of the team's last nine contests. Speedy rookie Jerious Norwood (550 yards, 2 TD) is averaging a healthy 6.5 yards per rush, and should be available to contribute after sitting out last week due to a sore knee. Atlanta racked up a whopping 252 yards on the Panthers in the season opener, with Dunn amassing 132 on 29 carries.

Carolina ranked fourth overall in rushing yards allowed (91.6 ypg) in 2005 but is yielding more than 20 yards per game in that area this season. The season- ending loss of middle linebacker Dan Morgan has had a crippling effect on the defense, as ex-Falcon Chris Draft (88 tackles, 4 sacks) has been steady but unspectacular in his place. Tackle Kris Jenkins (38 tackles, 2.5 sacks) was named to the Pro Bowl on Tuesday, but that honor may have been based more on reputation then performance. The fastest member of the front seven is second- year linebacker Thomas Davis (84 tackles, 1.5 sacks), who likely will draw the unenviable assignment of trying to contain Vick. If the Panthers are to succeed on Sunday, the defense must improve on the 159 rushing yards it surrendered in last week's defeat to Pittsburgh.

Atlanta's prowess running the ball is well-documented, but the team sits on the opposite end of the spectrum in the passing game. The Falcons are averaging a league-low 147 yards per contest through the air, although Vick (2,284 passing yards, 11 INT) has thrown for a career-best 19 touchdowns this year. He's only completed 52.8 percent of his passes, however, with the low figure partially due to a season-long rash of drops from the receivers. Vick's favorite target remains Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler (677 receiving yards, 7 TD), who leads Atlanta with 47 catches. The offense would greatly benefit from added consistency from the wideout group of Michael Jenkins (36 receptions, 408 yards, 7 TD), Roddy White (25 receptions, 404 yards) and Ashley Lelie (25 receptions, 390 yards, 1 TD), all former No. 1 picks. Jenkins and unheralded fullback Justin Griffith (22 receptions, 3 TD) have been effective within the red zone, though, with Griffith snaring two of Vick's four TD tosses versus Dallas.

The Panthers stand a respectable 10th overall in passing yards allowed (190.7 ypg), although the secondary hasn't been the big-play contingent it was a year ago. Carolina's quality cornerback duo of Chris Gamble (56 tackles, 2 INT) and Ken Lucas (27 tackles, 2 INT) has battled injuries throughout the season, which has provided increased playing time for promising youngster Richard Marshall (72 tackles, 3 INT, 10 PBU). Rushing the passer, normally an area of strength for Carolina, has been a problem during the current losing streak, mostly because superstar Julius Peppers (55 tackles, 11 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) has been held in check lately. The All-Pro end has failed to register a sack in five consecutive games. Compounding matters is the season-ending knee injury that veteran Mike Rucker (39 tackles, 5 sacks) suffered during last week's loss. Dependable reserve Al Wallace (21 tackles, 2 sacks) will start opposite Peppers in Rucker's place.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Atlanta has plenty of incentive for this game that goes beyond the obvious playoff ramifications. The Panthers humiliated the Falcons at the Georgia Dome in the 2005 regular-season finale, a loss that was a driving force for Atlanta's relatively easy 20-6 triumph at Carolina in Week 1. The Panthers' lack of effectiveness on offense and recent struggles stopping the run should allow the Falcons to control the clock and grind out a methodical win much like the season-opener. Weinke's dubious credentials under center and Carolina's history of not playing well in the Georgia Dome, where the Panthers had lost seven straight prior to last year's breakthrough, don't inspire confidence for the visitors either.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Falcons 20, Panthers 10

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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