'Canes and 'Noles duke it out in ACC action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A battle of Sunshine State foes in the ACC takes place in Tallahassee this afternoon, as the Miami-Florida Hurricanes do battle with the 15th-ranked Florida State Seminoles.

Miami comes in seeking its sixth straight win, as the team improved to 15-7 overall and 6-3 in conference after claiming a 65-49 triumph over visiting Virginia Tech on Thursday night. The Hurricanes have won their last three road bouts as well, the most recent of which being a 78-74 overtime triumph at Duke last Sunday.

Florida State recently had a seven-game win streak stopped in a 64-60 loss at Boston College on Wednesday night, dropping the team to 16-7 overall and 7-2 in the ACC. The Seminoles are a near-perfect 12-1 at home this season, with their only setback at the Tucker Center coming in a triple-overtime affair against Princeton back on December 30.

FSU owns a 38-28 lead in the all-time series with Miami, and the 'Noles have won 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Reggie Johnson scored 15 points, Shane Larkin added 14 and Kenny Kadji chipped in 11 to lead Miami past Virginia Tech earlier this week in south Florida. The Hurricanes shot just 41.4 percent from the field, but held the Hokies to 35.2 percent, and the visitors were guilty of 17 turnovers as well. Miami claimed advantages in points in the paint (24-14) and bench points (19-13), and won the game despite being outrebounded (40-32). Through 22 games, the 'Canes are averaging a healthy 72.1 ppg on the strength of their 44.0 percent field goal efficiency, which includes a 35.9 percent showing from three-point range. Defensively, the team allows 66.9 ppg on typical shooting outputs of just 41.5 percent overall and 33.4 percent from beyond the arc. Miami is -0.6 in rebounding margin, but +1.0 in turnover differential. Durand Scott heads a balanced attack that has four players averaging between 12.0 and 12.6 ppg, with two of them (Johnson and Kadji) making good on better than 52 percent of their field goal attempts.

Florida State is outscoring the opposition by nearly 10 ppg for the season (71.0 ppg to 61.4 ppg), and the team is shooting 45.6 percent from the floor while limiting the enemy to 37.4 percent. Foes have also struggled with their long-range launches, hitting them just 29.3 percent of the time. The Seminoles boast just two double-digit scorers in Michael Snaer (13.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg) and James Bernard (10.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg), although Ian Miller is close to joining the ranks as he nets 9.8 ppg despite coming off the bench and only appearing in 12 bouts thus far. Snaer was high man once again for FSU in its recent clash with Boston College, hitting for 16 points despite a disappointing shooting night (6-of-18), while James and Miller contributed 12 points apiece in the losing effort. As a team, the Seminoles shot just 39.6 percent from the floor, missing 15 of their 20 three-point attempts along the way. BC had the same overall shooting percentage, but 10 of its 19 total field goals were of the three-point variety.

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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

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