COLLEGE FB PACKAGE: Buckeyes, Bulls face trick first tests as new Nos. 1 and 2

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/17/2007 -

It had been 11 years since Nos. 1 and 2 lost on the same day before LSU and California pulled the trick last week.

In this unpredictable college football season, would it be all that surprising to see the top two teams in the AP poll and the BCS standings go down in the same weekend again?

Top-ranked Ohio State and No. 2 South Florida both face unranked opponents. But 10 teams with top-10 rankings have already lost to unranked opponents, so what's a couple more?

The Buckeyes' (7-0, 3-0 Big Ten) first game this season as No. 1 will be at home against Michigan State and former Ohio State defensive coordinator Mark Dantonio, who in his first season as head coach has the Spartans (5-2, 1-2) well positioned for their first winning season since 2003.

Dantonio has the Spartans getting after the quarterback, they're second in the nation in sacks with 29, and running the ball well (243 yards per game).

Ohio State's rise from No. 11 to start the season includes only one victory over a team that's been ranked at any point this season.

South Florida, the feel-good story out of the Big East, faces last year's feel-good story out of the Big East. The Bulls (6-0, 1-0) visit Rutgers on Thursday night.

The Scarlet Knights (4-2, 1-1), who started the season 16th in the rankings, broke a two-game losing streak with a win over Syracuse last week. Another conference loss would put Rutgers' league title hopes in peril.

The picks:ThursdayNo. 2 South Florida (minus 2 1/2) at Rutgers

Scarlet Knights stopped late 2-point conversion to beat Bulls last season ... USF 24-23.Saturday's GamesMichigan State (plus 17) at No. 1 Ohio State

Buckeyes have won 10 of 12 against Spartans ... OHIO STATE 28-10.No. 4 Oklahoma (minus 29) at Iowa State

Cyclones have worst offense in Big 12 ... OKLAHOMA 48-14.No. 18 Auburn (plus 11) at No. 5 LSU

Auburn won last season's Tiger Fight 7-3 ... LSU 21-13.Vanderbilt (plus 13) at No. 6 South Carolina

Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier has never lost to Vandy ... SOUTH CAROLINA 34-17.No. 7 Oregon (minus 11) at Washington

The 100th meeting between Ducks and Huskies ... OREGON 35-21.No. 14 Florida (minus 7) at No. 8 Kentucky

Gators have won 20 straight against Wildcats ... FLORIDA 34-28.Mississippi State (plus 23 1/2) at No. 9 West Virginia

Mountaineers won first meeting 42-14 last season in Starkville ... WEST VIRGINIA 41-17.No. 10 California (no line) at UCLA

Status of Cal QB Nate Longshore (ankle) questionable ... UCLA 28-24.No. 13 Southern California (minus 18) at Notre Dame

USC has won five straight vs. ND, though last trip to South Bend needed Bush Push to win ... USC 34-14.No. 15 Kansas (minus 4) at Colorado

KU QB Todd Reesing debuted vs. Buffs last season with three TDs ... KANSAS 29-17.No. 22 Texas Tech (plus 3 1/2) at No. 15 Missouri

Red Raiders are No. 1 passing team in nation; Tigers are fifth ... MISSOURI 54-43.No. 19 Texas (minus 24 1/2) at Baylor

Longhorns have scored 125 points in last two seasons against Bears ... TEXAS 50-17.No. 20 Tennessee (plus 1) at Alabama

Volunteers have won 10 of 12 in rivalry ... ALABAMA 31-28.No. 23 Cincinnati (plus 9 1/2) at Pittsburgh

How bad has it gotten for Panthers? Their coach is injured ... CINCINNATI 33-21.No. 24 Michigan (minus 2 1/2) at Illinois

Wolverines are 38-4-2 against Illini since 1959 ... ILLINOIS 28-24.No. 25 Kansas State (plus 3) at Oklahoma State

Cowboys have run for more than 200 yards in six straight games ... KANSAS STATE 34-30.

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Last week's record: 15-6 (straight); 13-7-1 (vs. points)

Season: 123-25 (straight); 67-62-2 (vs. points)Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.