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10/23/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After starting the season 0-4, the New Orleans Saints are treating every game like a must-win.
That's just fine for Reggie Bush, who ran for 54 yards and added five receptions for 19 yards and the game's biggest score as New Orleans outlasted Atlanta, 22-16, on Sunday.
The game wasn't pretty, but the Saints pulled it out. On the flip side, New Orleans looked bad enough for even the most optimistic fan to note that the Falcons have been utterly dreadful this season and the Saints still just barely got by them.
What does that say for a team which is now two wins shy of getting back to .500 at the midpoint of the season? Are these the real New Orleans Saints, now riding the momentum of back-to-back victories and getting the production out of Bush that they expected all along? And will they be content with the fact that, for now, they only have to be a little bit better than the other team?
Or is this the same team that looked nearly unrevivable a few short weeks ago, consistently trumped by the numbers on the scoreboard and plagued by the old mantra, "Everything that can go wrong will go wrong?"
"I think we have played better football and as a result we have won a couple of games," said head coach Sean Payton. "There is a lot to improve in without even looking at the tape. We have to be consistent on a number of things.
"I think it is a work in progress. The thing about this league is that you are what your record says you are. Fortunately, we have been able to get a couple of wins, but we have a long way to go. Our players understand that."
LATE GAME HEROICS
The Falcons, trailing by a point heading to the fourth quarter, took a 16-14 lead on Morten Andersen's 21-yard field goal with 10:22 remaining in the contest.
The Saints answered with an efficient 69-yard, 11-play drive, capped by a four-yard swing pass from Drew Brees to Bush with 5:04 remaining. Bush caught the ball at the two-yard line, shrugged off three defenders (and a would-be tackle by Falcons' cornerback Lewis Sanders) and dove across the goal line to put New Orleans back on top for good.
Bush wasn't done, however, as he swept around the right end and dove for the pylon to complete the two-point conversion, giving the Saints a 22-16 edge with about five minutes to play.
"We were just trying to catch the defense off guard," said Bush. "We ran it quick. We really didn't want to give them a chance to get set. They were bringing personnel when we were getting set. That obviously helped us out a lot. We caught them off guard. As far as the two-point conversion, it's a play we normally run quite a bit. We hadn't run it all game. It was the perfect call in the right situation."
Then, after the Falcons punted with less than two minutes left, Bush sewed up the victory with a seven-yard run that gave the Saints a first down and enabled them to run out the clock.
NEAR-DOMINANT "D"
The defense kept the Saints in the game for a third straight week, giving up only a couple of big plays while Atlanta managed just three field goals and one touchdown.
The Saints didn't blitz nearly as often as they did a week ago at Seattle, but they got enough pressure on Atlanta's Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington, finishing with three sacks (credited to Charles Grant, Brian Young and Kendrick Clancy), while strong safety Roman Harper led the way with six tackles.
Leftwich went 15-of-23 for 145 yards and a touchdown but was knocked out of the game in the second quarter with a sprained ankle, while Harrington finished 12-of-18 for 128 yards.
The Saints defense also didn't force any turnovers, but the Falcons did lose some ground on three fumbles, and each time, they were eventually forced to punt.
"We knew it was a game that was going to come down to the wire," said Saints linebacker Scott Fujita, who finished with four tackles. "We expected it to be a tough game, one of those days where you come early and stay late. Our defense today stepped up and made plays when we had to. When it counted and we had to make plays we did. It starts with the guys up front, those guys played huge today, they put a lot of pressure in the quarterback's face, and that was something that we needed to get done."
WILL THE REAL DREW BREES PLEASE STAND UP?
After a strong performance against the Seahawks last week, Brees completed just 22-of-34 passes for 219 yards, with two TDs and one interception against Atlanta. He also failed to establish a rhythm throughout the game, as the Saints converted just 4-of-12 attempts on third-down.
While Brees' performance wasn't alarmingly bad, he has now tossed a league- leading 10 interceptions this season and has a QB rating of 69.1.
Still, Brees tried to accentuate the positives after Sunday's victory, including a 37-yard touchdown pass to Devery Henderson in the first quarter.
"That was big. Especially early on, it was a way to get this game started," Brees noted. "We got in great field position on the punt return and went three-and-out but then came back the next time and got into one of those situations where we expected them to be playing the coverage that they did and we were able to get Devery up through a hole. Obviously he made a nice catch and it was a great way to get the whole thing started. It was a big play touchdown that we've been talking about for the last few weeks and getting back to the big plays that we used to make."
UP NEXT
In a clash of two teams going in opposite directions, the Saints are heading to San Francisco to battle the 49ers, who won their first two games of the season but have dropped their last four.
This trip could be another step for New Orleans to get back in a mediocre NFC South race, but they need Bush to remain a prominent threat on the ground and through the air.
The last time these two teams met, the Saints were riding a three-game win streak that catapulted them into the playoffs. They also had the services of Deuce McAllister, who ran roughshod over the Niners then, but won't be a factor now.
This could be another ugly game for New Orleans, which looks to be in for a tightly-contested battle.
"They are coming off of a tough loss and going out to San Francisco to play is difficult," Payton added. "It's loud and they have a lot of history and tradition and have played well traditionally at home. The focus starts with us, and doing all the little things specifically that give us the best chance to win. We know we are playing a team that is hungry for a win. They started off fairly strong and have slowed down of late, but it is going to be a challenge for us going on the road, we will have our work cut out for us."
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While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
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