Brewers ready brooms for skidding Bucs

Baseball Betting Lines

07/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Veteran lefty Randy Wolf pitches for the sweep when the Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates today in the finale of their three-game series at Miller Park.

Milwaukee has taken one-run verdicts in each of the first two games of the series, including a 4-3 triumph on Saturday, when Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder hit back-to-back home runs to support 6 1/3 strong innings from Dave Bush.

Bush (4-6) gave up two runs on six hits with two walks and five strikeouts. Braun also doubled and scored three times, while Casey McGehee drove in a run and had two hits for Milwaukee.

Brewers rookie right-hander John Axford recorded his 10th save in as many opportunities despite serving up a homer to Ryan Doumit in the ninth.

The Brewers won Friday, 5-4, after Braun came through with the game-winning hit and Fielder had another home run.

Garrett Jones smacked his 11th homer of the year for the Pirates, who have now lost five in a row. Starter Jeff Karstens (2-4) allowed four runs on five hits with a season-high six walks in five innings.

Wolf, a second-round pick of the Philadelphia Phillies in 1997, was an 11-game winner for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season before coming to the Brewers as a free agent and winning six of his initial 14 decisions. He downed St. Louis on July 1 for his last win, then subsequently dropped a 6-1 verdict to San Francisco on Tuesday despite allowing four hits and one earned run in seven innings.

He took just his second loss in 15 career starts against the Pirates May 19 in Pittsburgh, allowing 10 hits and six runs in 6 1/3 innings. Lifetime against Pittsburgh, Wolf is 8-2 with a 3.42 earned run average across exactly 100 innings.

The Pirates counter with Texas-born rookie right-hander Brad Lincoln, who was just 12 years old when Wolf debuted in the minors.

Lincoln was a 6-2 loser at Houston his last time out after allowing seven hits and five runs in five innings. He'd earned his lone major-league win one start earlier with a 2-0 triumph at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs on June 30.

In 36 big-league innings over six starts, Lincoln has given up 40 hits and 21 earned runs with 10 walks and 14 strikeouts.

Milwaukee has won seven of its 10 matchups with the Pirates this season and is 30-9 against the Bucs since the start of the 2008 campaign.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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