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07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nationals' Stephen Strasburg hasn't faced many hiccups since reaching the majors, but the 22-year-old phenom wasn't at the top of his game when he first faced the Braves.
Strasburg will look for better results tonight than that June outing in tonight's opener of a three-game series at Nationals Park versus the Atlanta Braves, who are coming off their first series loss to a National League club in almost three months.
The right-handed Strasburg is 5-2 with a 2.32 earned run average this season, but one of those losses came in Atlanta on June 28. Facing the NL East rivals for the first time, Strasburg gave up a career-high four runs, three of them earned, over 6 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts, leaving Braves manager Bobby Cox impressed.
"He's as advertised," Cox told Atlanta's website after the game. "He's dynamite. He's something really good for the game of baseball, something that special. He's got maybe the best changeup for a first-year player that I've ever seen. Everybody talks about his fastball, but his changeup goes straight down at 90 or 91 mph. It looks like some of the guys' best heaters going straight down."
The top pick of the 2009 draft, Strasburg has won three straight starts and is coming off Wednesday's victory over the Reds. He allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk over 5 2/3 innings, striking out seven to give him 75 through his first 54 1/3 innings. Strasburg also failed to reach seven innings pitched for a sixth start in a row.
Strasburg and 20-year-old Braves rookie Jason Heyward figure to engage in many battles over the course of their careers, but Heyward missed that first meeting due to injury. The outfielder comes into this game hitting .276 with 11 homers and 48 RBI, and is batting .486 over a nine-game hit streak.
Heyward had a pair of hits in Sunday's l5-4 loss to the Marlins, including a single with one out in the top of the 11th inning that loaded the bases. However, Nate McLouth hit into a double play and the Marlins won it in the bottom of the frame on Wes Helms' RBI single off Jesse Chavez.
Atlanta has lost six of 11 since going 17-8 from June 12-July 12 and the division leaders dropped their first set to an NL team since losing two of three to the Phillies on May 7-9. The club had been 12-0-4 in series versus the NL since.
The Braves' last series loss of any kind came in Chicago, where they were swept in three games by the White Sox from June 22-24.
"It's never good to drop a series, especially when they're within the division," Chipper Jones told Atlanta's website. "But we played well. A bounce here, a bounce there, we sweep the series. If we keep playing solid baseball, we're going to win a ton of games."
Atlanta will try to rebound behind a young gun of its own in 23-year-old Tommy Hanson, who is 0-1 with a 3.71 ERA over his last three starts and just 1-3 in his last four decisions.
Hanson did not factor into the decision of Wednesday's game versus the Padres, allowing two runs on six hits over 6 1/3 innings. On the season, the 23-year- old is 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA.
Hanson is 2-0 with a 2.94 ERA in five career starts versus the Nationals, but he did get a no-decision in Washington on May 5 after allowing four runs and nine hits over six frames of work.
He'll look to stay unbeaten against a Nats club that was swept in three games over the weekend by the Brewers and has lost seven of its last nine. Washington committed a pair of errors in Sunday's 8-3 loss, leading to five unearned runs allowed by losing starter Ross Detwiler.
"We did not have a good day defensively today," Nationals manager Jim Riggleman said. "We certainly didn't get it done today, but Detwiler has to pitch around [the errors]. I thought he did a good job and minimized the damage. We're just having growing pains."
Adam Dunn had two hits and an RBI as his name continues to surface in trade rumors leading up to Saturday's non-waiver trade deadline. The slugging first baseman is hitting .281 with 23 homers and 63 RBI on the season, but has gone deep just once in his last 12 games while hitting .250 (10-for-40) in that span.
The Braves and Nationals have split six meetings so far this year, with Atlanta taking two of three at home in late June.
<< Lackey returns to Anaheim as Red Sox take on Angels
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Lackey returns to Anaheim for the first time since
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<< Johnson hopes for record-setting start in Marlins-Giants tilt
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Johnson could put himself into the record books when
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox shoot for their ninth straight home
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<< Reds seek revenge in clash with streaking Brewers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Edinson Volquez aims to start another Cincinnati win streak
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Cincinnati had beaten the Brewers six straight times
Penguins PA announcer Barbero dies >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins' longtime public
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Barbero had been battling a brain tumor since February 2009.
"On behalf of the enti
Isles avoid arbitration with Moulson >>
Uniondale, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Islanders agreed to a one-year
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According to Newsday, the deal is worth $2.45 million.
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Prairie View A&M names Wilson head women's basketball coach >>
Prairie View, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Prairie View A&M University named Toyelle
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Union acquire midfielder Mapp from Fire >>
Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Union acquired midfielder
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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