Bergesen strong on mound as Orioles prevail over Mariners

Baseball Betting Lines

05/12/2010 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brad Bergesen surrendered a run in 7 2/3 innings and Miguel Tejada drove in two runs, as the Baltimore Orioles earned a 5-2 win over the Seattle Mariners, in the second test of a three-game set at Camden Yards.

Bergesen (3-2) scattered five hits with two walks and three strikeouts to break the Orioles' three-game skid. Alfredo Simon picked up his fourth save.

Luke Scott blasted a home run in the win, while Adam Jones went 3-for-4 with an RBI.

Ryan Langerhans finished 2-for-3 and Ken Griffey Jr. drove in a run for the Mariners, who had won two straight coming in.

Ryan Rowland-Smith (0-3) remained winless after allowing three runs on seven hits in three-plus frames.

In the ninth, Koji Uehara allowed a Matt Tuiasosopo lead-off walk and a Langerhans single before he was pulled for Simon, who struck out Josh Wilson for the first out. Pinch-hitter Griffey then plated a run on a sacrifice fly. Langerhans then took second on defensive indifference, but Simon got Michael Saunders to fly out to center, ending the game.

Baltimore struck first in the third. Corey Patterson led off with a single to right and moved to second on Jones' base hit. After Nick Markakis struck out, Tejada doubled in both runners for a 2-0 lead. Tejada was then thrown out trying to score by Langerhans on Matt Wieters' single.

Scott made it 3-0 in the fourth with a lead-off bomb to right. Scott then doubled to start the sixth off Ian Snell, moved to third on Garrett Atkins' double and scored on Cesar Izturis' sac fly. Patterson then flied out for the second out, but Jones made it 5-0 with an RBI base hit to right-center.

Seattle pulled within 5-1 on a two-out RBI single from Chone Figgins in the eighth. Ichiro Suzuki scored on the play after reaching on an infield single. Will Ohman entered and gave up a Casey Kotchman single to make way for Uehara, who retired Jose Lopez on a long fly ball that was caught inches in front of the left field fence.

Game Notes

The game started after a 24-minute rain delay...Seattle has prevailed in nine of the past 13 overall meetings in the series...Suzuki has recorded a hit in 32 of last 34 games against Baltimore. He went 2-for-4...Kotchman has played 214 consecutive games without committing an error at first base...The Orioles selected the contract of outfielder Corey Patterson from Triple-A Norfolk. In order to make room for Patterson on the 40-man roster, the Orioles transferred infielder Brian Roberts from the 15-day to the 60-day disabled list (abdominal strain). Outfielder Nolan Reimold was optioned to Norfolk to make room on the 25-man roster...Seattle went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position...Tejada finished 2-for-4.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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