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02/19/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This week's Round of 16 Champions League slate offers up eight tasty matchups, with four featuring English League clubs. Much like a meal of fish and chips and warm beer, the first knockout round has a distinctly British flavor to it.
Tuesday's action features a pair of European heavyweights, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, who have struggled in league play just to get a win in recent weeks. Premiership giants Manchester United and Arsenal both hit the road in the opening leg of their respective matchups, with the Red Devils traveling to meet French club Lille, while the Gunners visit Holland to battle Eredivisie leaders PSV. Celtic Park will be the venue for the Hoops showdown with AC Milan.
Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid
This is a matchup of two struggling titans who have failed to live up to expectations this season. Estadio Santiago Bernabeu will host the first leg of this clash, a place where the home team has won just five times in 11 matches during league play. The nine-time European champions are in desperate need of some scoring punch, producing just one goal in its last four home contests. Despite the departure of Ronaldo, Madrid certainly have no shortage of men who can put the ball in the net. With Raul, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Robinho all strike options for manager Fabio Capello, Real have the talent to give them the shot in the arm they so desperately need. Madrid currently sit fourth in the La Liga table and are coming off of a disappointing 0-0 draw with Real Betis on Saturday. If there is team left in this competition who enters the knockout round with even less momentum than Madrid, it has to be Bayern Munich. Bayern has slipped into fourth place in Bundesliga table, 12 points behind league-leaders Schalke. The German giants will now be fighting for the remainder of the season to qualify for the Champions League next year, but have a chance to make an impact on this year's competition. New manager Ottmar Hitzfeld, who replaced the fired Felix Magath on January 31, has guided Bayern to the Champions League crown once before, but it will take an even bigger effort to do so this season. Bayern have a nice mix of youth and experience on its roster, with emerging young German internationals Philipp Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Lukas Podolski. Veteran Oliver Kahn still provides a solid presence between the posts, and Roy Makaay and Claudio Pizarro have combined for 17 goals this season up top for Munich. The return of midfielder Owen Hargreaves from a broken leg a month ago should provide a nice boost in the center of the field, but this matchup hinges on which team can regain its good form.
Manchester United vs. Lille
United is the clear favorite in this one, with a big edge in overall talent level. However, Lille could prove to be a tricky opponent that gives United trouble. The Red Devils failed to advance past the group stage in last year's Champions League, due in part to a 1-0 loss and 0-0 draw against Lille. The French club is lead by midfielder Mathieu Bodmer, who leads the team with eight goals. Striker Peter Odemwingie gives the team a playmaker up top and keeper Tony Sylva is a strong option between the posts. Lille is not an explosive offensive team, and will need its defense to keep it in the game. That is easier said than done, however, as United have a formidable strike force of Wayne Rooney, Louis Saha and Henrik Larsson that will give any back line trouble. The task of controlling that dangerous trio falls to defenders Gregory Tafforeau and Mathieu Chalme. In addition to a strong attack, United has a big edge on the outside with dazzling midfielder Cristiano Ronaldo and steady veteran Ryan Giggs. The back line features standouts Rio Ferdinand, Gary Neville and Nemanja Vidic, who have proved tough to crack in front of keeper Edwin Van der Sar. Despite the gap in talent, this one will be closer than expected, with United working to hold its lead in the Premiership as well as FA Cup duties. The Red Devils are not the deepest team in the world, and with a busy schedule ahead of them, Lille could catch them at the right time.
Arsenal vs. PSV
Arsenal and PSV has the potential to be the most entertaining affair of the round. Both teams employ an attacking style with plenty of players who are capable of hitting the net. Arsenal is looking to duplicate the success it had in last year's competition, when the Gunners advanced all the way to the final before falling to Barcelona. PSV is a team that has consistently shown the ability to make it into the knockout round, but has always come up short in the big matches. PSV owns a five-point edge atop the Dutch Eredivisie standings, but the club has won just one of its last four games, and appears to have slowed down a bit. Despite the lack of wins in league play of late, the Eindhoven club is a very live opponent who will test Arsenal at every turn. PSV does have enough firepower to combat Arsenal's aggressive style, as Jefferson Farfan and Arouna Kone have combined to score 23 goals in league play for the squad this season. Midfielder Philip Cocu will also be looked to for offensive inspiration, but that trio will have a hard time matching the creativity and individual skill of Arsenal's Thierry Henry, Francesc Fabregas and Emmanuel Adebayor. PSV are capable of hanging with Arsenal for a while, and the first leg at home will be very important for them before making the trip to London. In the end, PSV will put up a good fight, but they are just a little outgunned.
AC Milan vs. Celtic
Celtic is making its first appearance in the Round of 16, and has a chance to make a great impression in the first leg at Celtic Park against AC Milan. While Celtic is new to the knockout round experience, AC Milan has been here plenty of times before. The Rossoneri has enjoyed much success in this competition in recent years, including finals appearances in 2003, where they beat Juventus, and 2005, where they were beaten by Liverpool. The match-fixing scandal from last season has robbed AC Milan of any chance to win Serie A this season, but the club will be plenty ready for another deep run in the Champions League this season. After starting league play in less than impressive fashion, Milan has won six of its last seven games and is hitting its stride at just the right time. Ronaldo, acquired from Real Madrid during the January transfer window, scored twice in the club's victory against Siena over the weekend, and has produced plenty of brilliance in the competition over the years. He will have plenty of help in carrying the scoring load as leading-scorer Alberto Gilardino will join him, along with fellow Brazilian Kaka adding scoring punch from the midfield. Celtic have been in great form in dominating the Scottish Premier League this season, but the Hoops are taking a big step up in class against Milan. The first leg will be critical for Celtic because the team has not faired well away from home, and the return leg at the San Siro will be a tall task. If Celtic can take a lead into the second leg they will have a chance, but anything less than a win in the first leg spells trouble.
Wednesday's action features a contest between the last two Champions League winners, 2005 champions Liverpool and last year's winners Barcelona. Serie A leaders Inter Milan face a tough Valencia team, French power Lyon meet Roma and Chelsea takes on 2004 champions FC Porto.
Liverpool vs. Barcelona
This was the most anticipated matchup when the draw was released, but it has lost a little bit of its luster since that time. Liverpool started 2007 on a low note, with a pair of losses to Arsenal in domestic cup competitions. Those losses may prove to be a blessing, however, giving Liverpool 11 days between its last match and Wednesday's first leg at Estadio Camp Nou. Barcelona, meanwhile, is coming off of a tough 2-1 defeat to Valencia on Sunday, and faces a much more difficult turnaround. Barca must also deal with internal problems, chief amongst them the unhappiness of striker Samuel Eto'o. The Cameroon international figured to provide a nice boost up front for the Catalan side if he could return to fitness after a four-month absence because of injury. However, after coming on as a substitute for five minutes three weeks ago, Eto'o has not stepped onto the pitch since. He stayed home for the Valencia trip, saying he needed to work on his conditioning, but reports have indicated a possible rift between the striker and coach Frank Rijkaard. A healthy Eto'o would have given the Liverpool defense problems, but the Reds appear to be let off the hook. Barca has also not looked like a dominant side all season, squandering numerous chances to pull away in La Liga. They are currently even on points with Sevilla, and will have a battle the rest of the way to hold on to their title. This is a Barcelona team that is there for the taking, and Liverpool appears to be a side that is capable of doing it. Liverpool's attack featuring strikers Peter Crouch and Dirk Kuyt, along with midfielder Steven Gerrard, will prove a handful, and the back line is strong enough to carry the Reds to the quarterfinals. This matchup will depend on whether or not Barcelona can put together a complete effort. If Ronaldinho is at his brilliant best and Deco is in a playmaking mood, Barca are a tough team for anybody to beat, the only problem is that we are still waiting for that complete effort to come together.
Inter Milan vs. Valencia
There is no hotter team in all of Europe than Inter Milan. The Italian side is unbeaten in 23 league matches this season, including 16-straight wins. The only time that Inter has struggled all season came in Champions League group play, when they dropped their first two games, before going unbeaten over the last four games to qualify for the knockout round. Valencia is hoping that some of that trouble will creep into the Inter side on Wednesday, as the Spanish outfit visit the San Siro. Valencia has been an up-and-down team all season, but will try to take the momentum it grabbed from Sunday's 2-1 defeat of Barcelona into the knockout round. The Inter defense has been very good this season, allowing just 17 goals in 23 matches in Serie A, but Valencia has a 1-2 punch of David Villa and Fernando Morientes that could give Inter some problems. The duo has combined for 19 goals this season, and will get help from midfielder Vicente, who has emerged as a nice complement. Valencia will need to find the net often if they are to get past Inter, who have to be considered one of the favorites to hoist the trophy in May. Part of the reason for that is an equally impressive offense led by striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic. The Swede has pumped home 10 goals this season, and will team with either Hernan Crespo or Adriano up top. Both teams are capable of scoring goals, but Inter has been the more consistent club throughout the season, and is more likely to produce two quality efforts.
Chelsea vs. FC Porto
Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho will no doubt be have flashbacks on Wednesday when he visits Estadio do Dragao to meet FC Porto. Mourinho guided the Portuguese club to the 2004 Champions League title, something that has eluded him in his time at Chelsea. For all the good things Mourinho has done in his two years at Stamford Bridge, he has failed to deliver an appearance in the finals. With such a high-priced roster filled with stars, anything less is looked at as failure. That will prove to be a tough task this season with the injuries that the Blues have had to endure and the fact that they are still trying to chase down Manchester United in the Premiership standings. Chelsea has won its last six games with make-shift lineups, and Mourinho is starting to get back some of his injured stars. Defender John Terry is back healthy after back and calf issues, while keeper Petr Cech is also back between the posts after a head injury. Striker Didier Drogba has been simply dominant this season, but the key to a Chelsea title run could hinge on his strike partner. Mourinho has played both Salomon Kalou and much-maligned Andriy Shevchenko alongside Drogba with mixed results. Shevchenko has been a prolific goal scorer in years past, and if he can somehow regain that form, Chelsea will be a force. FC Porto will be looking for some of the magic they used to capture the 2004 crown, and need to look no further than striker Helder Postiga for that support. The Portuguese sniper will carry much of the scoring load on his shoulders, and will be the number one target of the Chelsea defense. If the Blues can shut down Postiga, they will stand a very good chance of moving on. Porto's back line has conceded just 10 goals in 18 games in league play this season, but has not seen anything like Drogba yet.
Lyon vs. Roma
Lyon are a club that has always been a bridesmaid and never a bride. They have dominated Ligue 1 for the past four seasons, but they have been unable to translate that success to the Champions League. The French power has been consistently knocked out in the quarterfinal and semifinal round, never quite reaching the final. This season doesn't look to be much different. After destroying the French league in the first couple months of the season, Lyon has taken its foot off the gas pedal. The club has won its last two games, but went four games prior without a win. They have not resembled the juggernaut from earlier this season, but maybe they need the competition of the Champions League to keep themselves interested. Lyon do boast a balanced attack with Fred, Juninho and Florent Malouda, while also maintaining a strong defensive record in league play. However, they just seem to lack that extra something to vault them into elite status. Lucky for them that their opponents, Roma, also cannot claim to be a favorite in the competition. The Italian side do have the high-flying Francesco Totti, but they do not have enough help for him to move on. Lyon figure to do enough to get past this round, which they usually do, but after that, all bets are off.
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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