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Hockey Betting Lines

(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers are now literally on the road to the Winter Classic. The Flyers look to recover from a blowout loss on Saturday with their first victory at Colorado in seven years as they take on the Avalanche, who try to win a sixth straight home game this evening.

 

Philadelphia had a seven-game win streak snapped and fell into a tie with Boston for first place in the Eastern Conference.

 

"It was a tough day for us, and it was not typical of the way we have been playing or executing," said Philadelphia head coach Peter Laviolette.

 

Though Philadelphia took the lone meeting with the Avalanche last year 4-2 at home, it has lost its last four at Colorado since a win there on Dec. 27, 2004. The Avs have won six of the last eight encounters overall.

 

Colorado started up a four-game homestand with its fifth straight victory at the Pepsi Center on Saturday, a 2-1 triumph over Washington. Erik Johnson scored his first goal of the season and also assisted on Cody McLeod's first score of 2011-12.

 

Jean-Sebastien Giguere made 25 saves as the Avalanche won for only the second time in six games.

 

Sutter, who signed a multi-year contract, is still working on immigration issues, but is expected to be behind the bench when the Kings play their next home game Thursday against Anaheim. Sutter has been an NHL head coach for 11 seasons in Chicago, San Jose and Calgary, leading his clubs to 10 playoff appearances, including a Stanley Cup Final berth in 2004 with the Flames.

 

The Kings fell behind 3-0 before the midway point of the first period on Saturday and were never a factor after that. Jonathan Quick started in net for Los Angeles but was pulled in the first period after allowing three goals on seven shots. Jonathan Bernier relieved Quick and stopped 15-of-20 shots.

 

The Kings are making the final stop on a four-game road trip tonight and are 6-5-3 as the guest this season.

 

Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs have lost two straight, four of five and six of their last eight games. Toronto has not fared well defensively in its last two losses, surrendering five goals in each contest.

 

The latest setback came Saturday against visiting Vancouver, as the Leafs began a three-game homestand with a 5-3 setback against the Canucks.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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